Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - Basic Logic: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - Industrial Logic: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - Industrial Logic: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].
中辉有色观点-20250917
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-17 03:35