行业跟踪报告：下行略加速，关注收储的临界点

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Insights - The supply and demand in the real estate sector show signs of accelerated decline, particularly in supply, with a notable shift in the balance point [2]. - The effectiveness of policies has shifted from explosive short-term impacts to more sustained effects, necessitating a reassessment of policy attitudes and outcomes [61]. - The relationship between completed construction area and unsold inventory is crucial for future storage policies, indicating a potential critical point for policy execution [62]. Summary by Sections Investment Situation - From January to August 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 60,309 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, with residential investment down 11.9% [13][10]. - New construction area decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while completed area fell by 17.0% [18][10]. - The total funding for real estate reached 64,318 billion, down 8.0% year-on-year [45][10]. Sales Performance - The total sales area of commercial housing from January to August 2025 was 573 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 4.7% [27][10]. - The sales amount for commercial housing was 55,015 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year [27][10]. - In first-tier cities, the sales area of residential properties increased by 0.9%, while second-tier cities saw a similar trend, indicating a potential stabilization in demand [29][32]. Recommendations - Low-leverage companies remain the preferred choice, with recommendations for various categories including developers like Vanke A, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development [60]. - The report emphasizes that the decline in supply is more pronounced, while the pressure on the funding chain remains manageable [60][4]. - The anticipated seasonal peak in sales towards the end of the year suggests a likelihood of sales amounts exceeding development investment, keeping the funding chain risks under control [60].