菜粕期货周报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the week of 20250908 - 0912, rapeseed meal futures prices showed a high - level oscillating trend, while spot prices oscillated upward. Traders were still reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The oil mill operation rate was low, and the inventory of pressed rapeseed meal decreased. The market continued to focus on the future China - Canada trade relationship and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The rapeseed meal futures prices oscillated throughout the week. By Friday, the main contract, rapeseed meal 2601 (rm2601), closed at 2531 points, with a maximum of 2572 points and a minimum of 2522 points. The position was 402,900 lots, an increase of 6326 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume was 1.575 million lots, a decrease of 74,500 lots from the previous week [3]. - Variety Market: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, each contract had different price movements. The total position of the variety was 658,940 lots, and the trading volume was 1,972,034 lots [4][6]. - Related Market: The rapeseed meal options had a trading volume of 268,227 lots and a total position of 147,556 lots during the week, with an increase of 11,577 lots in the position. The total number of exercised options was 0 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Condition: Rapeseed meal spot prices rose slightly during the week, remaining stable with an upward trend. The market supply was relatively stable, and demand was also steady. The benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2638.33 yuan/ton on September 8 and 2665.00 yuan/ton on September 12 [9]. - Basis Data: The rapeseed meal basis showed a strengthening trend during the week, mainly due to relatively stable market supply and demand, which provided some support for spot prices. The basis price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract fluctuated between 96.33 yuan/ton and 134 yuan/ton [10]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 10,383, with a cumulative increase of 3622 during the week [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: The peak season for aquaculture in September had not completely ended, so there was still some demand for rapeseed meal. However, as the season changed, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture gradually decreased. In addition, due to the weakening price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal, the cost - effectiveness advantage of rapeseed meal diminished, and some downstream enterprises might reduce their rapeseed meal purchases and switch to soybean meal [11]. - Technical Analysis: The rapeseed meal rm2601 contract oscillated during the week. It rose at the beginning of the week, then maintained a high - level oscillation, and the price declined on Friday, indicating a fierce game between long and short forces in the market. The 5 - day moving average began to turn downward, suggesting a short - term weakening of the price. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average for the price [12]. 3.4 Market Outlook With the listing and supply of new - season rapeseed and the possibility of improved trade relations between China, Canada, and Australia, rapeseed meal prices may face certain pressure. However, since the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, the overall supply - demand relationship in the rapeseed meal market is expected to change little. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 futures contract may continue to oscillate at a high level [14].