聚烯烃日报：宏观支撑，聚烯烃小幅反弹-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage; Cross - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro support has strengthened, black - series commodities led the rise, driving a slight rebound in polyolefins. Some upstream petrochemical plants are under maintenance, with capacity utilization slightly decreasing. New capacity is expected to be put into production, and supply is expected to remain at a high level, with large inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. The international oil price has rebounded, and the propane price has continued to rise, strengthening the cost - side support [2] Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves the production profit of LL (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [18][20][21] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread - It includes the price spreads of HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [27][34][35] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - It covers the import profit of LL, the price difference between LL FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR, the import profit of PP, the export profit of PP (to Southeast Asia), the price difference between PP homopolymer injection FOB US Gulf and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, the price difference between PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB and China CFR, and the export profit of LL [41][45][52] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - It includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film, and the operating rates of PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [61][62][72] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - It involves the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [74][77][88]