化工日报：EG主港库存低位持稳，现货基差走弱-20250917

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.11%); the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons, up 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 94,000 tons [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains high, and there are still many overseas supply losses. There are two or more Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still postponed for shipment. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery is slow, and the order connection is insufficient. The polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, suppress market sentiment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,272 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market was 4,382 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -72 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -144 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread - Not elaborated in the text. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand recovery is slow, the order connection is insufficient, and the polyester load is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 465,000 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 363,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 94,000 tons [1].