Minsheng Securities·2025-09-17 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including Lu'an Huanneng, Huayang Co., Shanmei International, China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Jinkong Coal [4]. Core Insights - The Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau has confirmed the overproduction of coal, with a theoretical reduction in raw coal output of 61.17 million tons year-on-year for 2024 [1]. - In 2024, Inner Mongolia's coal production exceeded the approved capacity by 61.17 million tons, representing an overproduction rate of 4.95% [1]. - The report anticipates a continued contraction in supply due to strict enforcement of overproduction regulations, which could theoretically impact supply by approximately 400 million tons [3]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to gradually increase as the market transitions from the off-peak season, with a potential price rebound supported by declining port inventories and ongoing supply restrictions [3]. Summary by Sections Overproduction and Regulatory Actions - A total of 93 coal mines were found to be operating above their approved production capacities in Inner Mongolia, with 30% of the inspected mines exceeding their capacities by over 110% in 2024 [2]. - Approximately 32.2 million tons per year of production capacity is pending verification before resuming operations, affecting 15 mines in the Ordos region [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the supply side is likely to continue contracting, which, combined with seasonal demand increases, may lead to a recovery in coal prices back to levels seen in Q3 2024 [3]. - The report highlights that traders are currently cautious, but the fundamentals are improving, which could support a price increase [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market exposure, stable performance, and growth potential, including Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and industry leaders like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [3].