塑料震荡企稳

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]