国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - Silver: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - Zinc: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - Lead: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - Tin: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - Aluminum: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - Industrial Silicon: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - Iron Ore: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - Log: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - LPG: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - Propylene: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - PVC: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - Fuel Oil: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - Offset Printing Paper: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - Pure Benzene: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - Corn: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - Sugar: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - Cotton: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - Egg: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - Live Pig: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].