2025年四季度策略：更进一步

Economic Overview - The report indicates that both domestic and foreign demand are stabilizing and improving, with strong resilience in exports expected to continue into Q4 2025 [7][10][29] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance industrial profits, although the real estate and consumer sectors remain weak [7][10][19] Liquidity - The report forecasts a synchronized easing of liquidity both domestically and internationally in Q4 2025, with short-term funding remaining ample and a slight decline in DR007 [7][44] - The leverage of funds is accelerating into the stock market, with financing balances reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating a robust market sentiment [7][50] Policy - Q4 2025 marks a critical period for the deployment of the "14th Five-Year Plan" policies, with a focus on high-quality development as the main theme [7][60][64] - Key upcoming events include the 20th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference, which will guide economic work for 2026 [7][60] Market and Style - The A-share market is expected to advance further in Q4, driven by policy and liquidity, with a more balanced style between growth and value [7][9] - The report suggests that stock valuations still have room for expansion, supported by incremental policies and macro liquidity [7][9] Industry Allocation - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" narrative, particularly in computing, electrical equipment, and basic chemicals [7][9][53] - The computing sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, with a bullish sentiment expected to continue into Q4 2025 [7][9][50]