Report Industry Investment Ratings - Threaded steel: Cautiously bullish [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Cautiously bullish [1] - Iron ore: Hold long positions [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking coal: Bullish [1] - Manganese silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The news of production restrictions in Tangshan has provided a boost, but it is expected to have only a temporary impact. The molten iron production has rebounded to over 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high absolute level. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel have decreased month-on-month, while the inventory continues to increase. Currently, it is in the stage of verifying the quality of demand, and the downstream demand has not improved. Meanwhile, there is a certain pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The supply-demand driving force is limited, and it will maintain a range-bound operation after reflecting the short-term policy bullishness. The production and apparent demand of hot-rolled coil have increased month-on-month, at relatively high absolute levels, and the inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil are relatively stable, with few contradictions. The policy has brought a temporary boost, but there is a lack of continuous supply-demand drivers [1][4][5]. - The molten iron production has recovered rapidly. Pay attention to the profits and production cuts of steel enterprises. The port inventory has increased, and steel mills have made small replenishments. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased significantly, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. The ore price is oscillating strongly [1][8][9]. - The verification of overproduction in the coal industry by the Energy Bureau has begun to be implemented, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the coking profit has decreased. The production of coke enterprises is relatively stable. The molten iron production has increased significantly month-on-month, and the demand for raw materials is high. The supply and demand of coke itself are relatively balanced, and it will follow the strong trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. - The verification of overproduction in the coal industry by the Energy Bureau has begun to be implemented, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. The expectation of anti-involution has heated up again, and market confidence has been strengthened. The production of coking coal has increased month-on-month, but the increase is moderate. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level, and the import volume is operating at a high level. The molten iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased, and there are few short-term supply-demand contradictions. It will operate strongly in a policy-friendly atmosphere [1][16][17]. - Against the background of the resumption of production in the production areas, the supply pressure continues to increase. On the demand side, the recovery of molten iron production still provides rigid support for the demand for manganese silicon. Pay attention to the new round of replenishment of steel mills. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment has emerged again, and the price is operating strongly. The supply-demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The warehouse receipts are maintaining a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still relatively high, suppressing the upward space of the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment has emerged again, and the market will follow the strong trend of coal prices [1][20][21]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Information: The latest prices of threaded steel futures contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3166, 3236, and 3069 respectively, with increases of 30, 31, and 24. The latest prices of hot-rolled coil futures contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3402, 3410, and 3433 respectively, with increases of 32, 36, and 35. The latest price of Tangshan billet is 3060, with an increase of 30. The prices of threaded steel in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu) range from 3190 to 3350, with increases of 10 - 40. The prices of hot-rolled coil in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu) range from 3350 to 3550, with increases of 20 - 40 [2]. - Basis and Spread Information: The basis of threaded steel (01: Shanghai) is 104, with no change; the basis of hot-rolled coil (01: Shanghai) is 28, with a decrease of 12. The spreads between different futures contracts of threaded steel and hot-rolled coil also show certain changes [2]. Iron Ore - Price Information: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 804, 782, and 763 respectively, with increases of 8, 8, and 6. The prices of different iron ore powders (PB powder, Yangdi powder, BRBF powder) also show corresponding changes [6]. - Basis and Spread Information: The basis of PB powder (01) is 47, with an increase of 1. The spreads between different futures contracts of iron ore also show certain changes [6]. Coke - Price Information: The latest prices of coke futures contracts (January, May, September) are 1735.0, 1873.5, and 1913.5 respectively, with increases of 46.5, 45.5, and 52.0. The prices of coke in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, Tangshan) also show certain changes [11]. - Weekly Data: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coke enterprises is 75.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills is 240.6, an increase of 11.7. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 66.8, an increase of 2.4. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.4, a decrease of 0.2. The inventory of sample coking plants is 67.8, an increase of 1.3; the inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3, an increase of 9.6. The inventory available days are 11.3, a decrease of 0.4. The port coke inventory is 205.1, with a slight increase of 0.1. The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is 35.0, a decrease of 29.0 [11]. Coking Coal - Price Information: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts (January, May, September) are 1240.5, 1329.5, and 1380.5 respectively, with increases of 53.0, 45.0, and 49.5. The prices of coking coal in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) also show certain changes [15]. - Weekly Data: The开工 rate of sample coal washing plants is 61.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average clean coal production of sample coal washing plants is 52.1, with no change. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 53.3, an increase of 2.1. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.6, an increase of 0.9. The coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 752.0, a decrease of 29.0; the inventory available days are 10.6, a decrease of 0.9. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 793.7, a decrease of 2.0; the inventory available days are 12.8, a decrease of 0.3. The total port coking coal inventory is 271.1, a decrease of 4.4 [15]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Price Information: The latest prices of manganese silicon futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 5944, 5980, and 5994 respectively, with increases of 38, 36, and 14. The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 5680, 5784, and 5892 respectively, with increases of 20, 18, and 90. The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon in different regions also show corresponding changes [19]. - Weekly Data: The开工 rate of manganese silicon enterprises is 47.38%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points. The开工 rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.84%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The production of 187 manganese silicon enterprises is 214130, an increase of 1295. The inventory of 63 manganese silicon enterprises is 166800, an increase of 6300. The production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 113000, a decrease of 2000. The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 69940, an increase of 3380 [19].
中辉黑色观点-20250917
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-17 05:28