申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250917

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The polyolefin market saw a rally followed by a decline. From a fundamental perspective, the polyolefin spot market is still driven by supply and demand. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. After continuous declines, short - selling pressure has been released. With the stabilization of crude oil prices, it provides support for chemical products. The market also rebounded after continuous declines. In the short term, the recovery of terminal demand may support the market to oscillate and rebound. Future attention should be paid to the potential rebound after the market stabilizes and the situation of the Fed meeting this week [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - LL Futures: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 7234, up 2 from the day before with a 0.03% increase, trading volume was 256083, and open interest was 524036 with a decrease of 30939. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 41 (previous value - 20) [2]. - PP Futures: For the 1 - month contract, the previous day's closing price was 6970, up 4 from the day before with a 0.06% increase, trading volume was 324397, and open interest was 581302 with a decrease of 34852. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 30 (previous value - 22) [2]. Raw Material and Spot Market - Raw Materials: Methanol futures were at 2377 yuan/ton (previous value 2398), Shandong propylene was at 6575 yuan/ton (previous value 6600), South China propane was at 595 dollars/ton (unchanged), PP recycled materials were at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and North China powder was at 6750 yuan/ton (previous value 6700) [2]. - Spot Market: LL in the East China market was priced at 7200 - 7700 yuan/ton (previous value 7150 - 7700), and PP in the East China market was priced at 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. News - On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day [2].