集运日报：现货价格持续下行，中东局势反复，国庆前货量堪忧，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are continuously declining, the situation in the Middle East is volatile, and cargo volume before the National Day is concerning. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly try for arbitrage strategies [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, an increase of 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, a decrease of 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, a decrease of 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, a decrease of 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, a decrease of 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, a decrease of 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2370 USD/FEU, an increase of 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, a decrease of 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024 and higher than the expected value of 50.7. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2]. - In August in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2]. - In the US, the August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [2]. 3.3 Contract Information - On September 16, the main contract 2510 closed at 1169.7, a decrease of 0.10%, with a trading volume of 32,600 lots and an open interest of 47,500 lots, a decrease of 255 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. 3.4 Geopolitical Information - On September 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military is strongly attacking the infrastructure of Hamas armed personnel to create conditions for defeating Hamas and releasing Israeli hostages [5]. - On September 15, US President Trump said that Israel would not attack Qatar again [5].