镍与不锈钢日评：反弹空间有限-20250917

1. Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250917: Limited Rebound Space [1] 2. Price and Trading Data Shanghai Nickel Futures - Futures Contracts: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 120,520 yuan/ton, 120,700 yuan/ton, 120,880 yuan/ton, and 121,110 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 110 yuan/ton, 140 yuan/ton, 170 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 104,592 lots (+1,913), and the open interest was 66,538 lots (-4,072) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory was 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures showed various changes, such as the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price basis was 990 yuan/ton (+570) [2]. London Nickel Futures - Prices: On September 16, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,460 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,436 US dollars/ton [2]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume was 6,565 lots (-3,998) [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The LME nickel 0 - 3 months spread was -188.63 US dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price basis was 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 218,454 tons, and the total inventory was 226,434 tons [2]. Shanghai Stainless Steel Futures - Futures Contracts: On September 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume was 230,776 lots (+49,842), and the open interest was 130,786 lots (-3,043) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory was 95,745 tons (-604) [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures also had corresponding changes, such as the 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price - active contract basis was 880 yuan/ton (+150) [2]. 3. Market News - In the second phase of September, the average price of nickel commodity mineral reference price (HPM) rose to $15,000.33 per dry ton, up from $14,899.64 per dry ton in the first phase. The prices of nickel ores with specific nickel content and different moisture contents (MC) are adjusted according to nickel content and moisture content [2]. 4. Core Views Nickel - On September 16, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. On the supply side, nickel ore prices were flat, port inventories increased, nickel - iron plant losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron destocked. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Inventory increased in SHFE, LME, and the social market, while it decreased in the bonded area. The enhanced expectation of Fed rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound of nickel prices is expected to be limited [2]. Stainless Steel - On September 16, the stainless steel main contract opened high and closed low. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 596,300 tons (-15,400). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome were flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 5. Trading Strategies Nickel - It is recommended to short at high levels after the rate cut is implemented [2]. Stainless Steel - It is recommended to wait and see [2].