申银万国期货首席点评：黄金刷新历史高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US consumer spending remains strong due to salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The gold market is likely to be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments. The copper and zinc prices may fluctuate within a certain range. The oil market will focus on OPEC's production increase. The stock index is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the bond price is stabilizing in the short term. Different commodities in the energy, chemical, metal, black, agricultural, and shipping sectors have their own market trends based on supply - demand relationships and other factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - On September 16th, the US President Trump said he would talk with President Xi on Friday, and the US Treasury Secretary confirmed it. The TikTok issue has reached a relevant agreement, and the two leaders will make a decision during the call. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman had no information to provide [4][5] 3.1.2 Domestic News - On September 16th, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures in five aspects to increase high - quality service supply [5] 3.1.3 Industry News - On September 12th, the China Real Estate Association's commercial housing direct - selling platform was launched, with 15 initial signing units covering real estate development, financial services, and industry associations [6] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The table shows the daily gains and losses of various foreign market varieties on September 15th and 16th, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - Stock Index: The US three major indexes fell. The previous trading day's stock index was differentiated. The market is in a high - level consolidation phase after continuous rise. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [9][10] - Treasury Bond: It opened low and closed high. The central bank increased net investment, but the capital market tightened due to tax payment. The US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term bond price stabilized [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The SC night session rose 1.56%. Eight countries decided to adjust the daily production increase in October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel daily production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12] - Methanol: The night session fell 0.46%. The domestic methanol production and inventory situation is not optimistic, and it is short - term bearish [13] - Rubber: It showed a volatile trend. The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][15] - Polyolefin: The price rose and then fell. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor, and the short - term terminal demand recovery may support the price [16] - Glass and Soda Ash: Both futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and future consumption and policies need attention [17] 3.3.3 Metal - Precious Metal: Gold and silver rose and then fell. US economic data strengthened the September interest - rate cut expectation, and gold has long - term driving factors. It may be bullish in the long - term with short - term adjustments [2][18] - Copper: The night session rose 0.02%. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand is mixed, so the price may fluctuate within a range [3][19] - Zinc: The night session rose 0.16%. The smelting profit is positive, and the short - term supply may be excessive, with the price likely to fluctuate weakly within a range [20][21] 3.3.4 Black - Coking Coal and Coke: The night session was strong. The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and the policy expectation provides support, so the price is in a high - level shock [22] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The night session of soybean meal was weakly volatile, and rapeseed meal rose slightly. The USDA report was neutral - bearish, and the market expects improved domestic supply, so the price is expected to be weakly volatile [23] - Edible Oil: The night session was bullish. The Malaysian palm oil data's bearish impact was digested, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [24] - Sugar: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market has supply - demand contradictions. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [25] - Cotton: The international cotton market has supply pressure, and the domestic market has a new - cotton acquisition focus. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [26][27] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC was volatile. As the National Day approaches, the shipping companies' freight - rate reduction competition intensifies, and the short - term price depends on the decline rate of spot freight [28]