贵金属数据日报-20250917

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.14% to 842.08 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.8% to 10,108 yuan/kilogram [5] - Against the backdrop of a weakening US job market, a decline in the consumer confidence index, and relatively controllable inflation pressure, the market continues to trade on the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The market's expectation of a 50 - basis - point rate cut has resurfaced, and it is generally expected that the Fed will cut rates three times this year. Coupled with a slight increase in geopolitical tensions in some regions, precious metal prices remain high and strong [5] - Before the rate cut in September, precious metal prices are still supported and are expected to remain high and strong, but the risk of increased volatility due to "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - fact" should be watched out for [5] - In the long - term, with the expectation of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 16, 2025, London Gold Spot was at 3,692.53 dollars/ounce, London Silver Spot at 42.74 dollars/ounce, COMEX Gold at 3,729.70 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver at 43.17 dollars/ounce, AU2510 at 842.08 yuan/gram, AG2510 at 10,108 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) at 838.00 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 10,090 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 15, the price increases were 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 1.3%, 1.3%, 0.9%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [3] Spread/Ratio - On September 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 4.08 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 18 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 5.22 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 830 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.31, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 86.41, AU2512 - 2510 was 2.50 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2510 was 26 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 15, the changes were 34.2%, - 10.0%, 142.9%, 6.9%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.0%, and - 7.1% respectively [3] Position Data - As of September 15, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 976.8 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15,069.6026 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 324,875 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 63,135 contracts, the net long position was 261,740 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 72,450 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 18,513 contracts, and the net long position was 53,937 contracts. Compared with September 12, the changes were 0.21%, 0.00%, 2.87%, - 4.72%, 4.89%, - 2.71%, - 0.16%, and - 3.55% respectively [3] Inventory Data - On September 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 53,226 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 1,231,261 kilograms. On September 15, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,180,931 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 527,647,671 troy ounces. Compared with September 15 and September 12 respectively, the changes were 0.00%, - 0.98%, 0.68%, and 0.04% respectively [3] Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Equity Market - On September 16, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 7.10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 97.36, NYMEX crude oil was 3.54, the US dollar index was 4.05, VIX was 15.69, the S&P 500 was 6,615.28, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 63.28. Compared with September 15 and September 12 respectively, the changes were - 0.04%, - 0.27%, - 0.56%, - 0.25%, 6.30%, 0.47%, and 1.09% respectively [4]