光大期货能化商品日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of crude oil is expected to rise steadily due to potential supply - side impacts from Russian production cuts and OPEC+ discussions on maximum production capacity [1]. - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Among them, the price of asphalt may have further upward potential with the arrival of the demand peak season, and the price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI October contract rose $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel (1.93% increase), Brent November contract rose $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel (1.53% increase), and SC2510 closed at 500.9 yuan per barrel, up 8.8 yuan (1.79% increase). Russian oil production may be cut due to attacks, and OPEC+ will discuss member countries' maximum production capacity. The market may price in the positive impact on the supply side, leading to a steady upward shift in the oil price center [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) rose 0.29% to 2795 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) rose 1.25% to 3395 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The prices of FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, and short - term attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) rose 0.38% to 3411 yuan per ton. Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and demand is supported in the north and affected by rainfall in the south. With the arrival of the demand peak season, the price may rise further, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; EG2601 closed at 4272 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The prices of polyester products are expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of PTA are expected to improve, and the near - month basis of ethylene glycol is strong, but the far - month supply is loose [3][5]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 45 yuan to 16040 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the peak production season overseas and the increase in downstream tire production, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2292 yuan per ton. The domestic supply is at a phased low, and overseas supply is stable. The Xingxing plant has resumed production, and the price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was between 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the demand is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: On Tuesday, the market prices in East, North, and South China all increased. The domestic real estate construction has stabilized, but the demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected. The price is expected to rebound slightly in the short - term but with limited upside [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. on September 17, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ representatives plan to hold a meeting in Vienna on Thursday and Friday to discuss how to evaluate the maximum production capacity of member countries. There are disputes among member countries regarding production quotas [10]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production after port and refinery attacks, and the attacks have led to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity since August [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [12]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [30]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy - chemical products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Displays the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [60]. - 4.5 Production Profits: Presents the cash flow and production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [76][77][78][79].