黑色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日）-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, and the short - term thread disk is expected to run with an upward bias. The iron ore market has a complex supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by production and demand factors, and the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are boosted by market sentiment, but the fundamental driving force is limited, and the prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The thread disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the thread 2601 contract was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,800 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume declined slightly. With environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to run with an upward bias [1] - Iron ore: The main contract i2601 price of iron ore futures rose yesterday, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day, with 400,000 lots traded and a decrease of 3,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered after production restrictions, but the steel mill profitability has declined, and the inventory has increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [1] - Coking coal: The coking coal disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1240.5 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 4.46%, with an increase of 33,930 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. The supply side has normal production, and the demand side has a slowdown in procurement. The short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - Coke: The coke disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 46.5 yuan/ton or 2.75%, with a decrease of 406 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. After two rounds of price cuts, the profitability of coke enterprises has declined, and the supply is sufficient. With production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - Manganese silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5944 yuan/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, with an increase of 7995 lots in positions to 335,700 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Driven by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market news, the price is expected to oscillate on the stronger side, but the upward space is limited [1] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.71% month - on - month, with a decrease of 810 lots in positions to 212,400 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Affected by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market sentiment, but with limited fundamental driving force, the price is expected to follow the black sector and oscillate slightly on the stronger side [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, as well as the profit, price spreads, and other data of some commodities, including the contract spreads between different months, the basis of different contracts, and the changes in spot prices in different regions [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][9][11][15] - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][22][23][24][25] - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][41] - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: It shows the inter - commodity contract spreads of some black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and steel, the ratio of steel to iron ore, the ratio of steel to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, etc. [43][44][45][47] - 3.5 Steel Profits: It shows the profit trends of steel, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the main steel contracts [48][49][51][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55]