工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, industrial silicon trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.85%. The position decreased by 3,764 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.51%. The position decreased by 4,433 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 1,045 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon has a mix of positive factors, and the market has undergone a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. The output in September continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remains, suppressing the price upside. There is still a self-discipline meeting for polysilicon to be held this week, and attention should be paid to whether new variables emerge [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both trended strongly with oscillations on September 16. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has recovered. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, and attention should be paid to the self-discipline meeting [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,840 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon mostly increased, with increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 100 yuan to -40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 49,905, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons to 249,990 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,400 tons to 445,800 tons [3] Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts remained unchanged. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon increased, with the price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rising by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 500 yuan to -1,045 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,850, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 234,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon remained unchanged at 234,000 tons [3] Organic Silicon - The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][34]