生产热度回升，出口量价分化

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]