中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，黑色系普遍上涨-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the process of household deposit transfer indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets, such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting at 0:00 on September 18th. The market's baseline assumption for the interest - rate decision is a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with a small probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the release of US inflation data in August provides another reason for the Fed to cut rates: inflation has not significantly increased due to tariffs. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors has also boosted market expectations for a rate cut [7]. - Domestic Macro: Domestically, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity should be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is generally stable, which supports the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that the subsequent use of special bonds may be more for debt resolution and less for physical work such as infrastructure. Considering the uncertain implementation rhythm of 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments, the demand impulse for the physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. For investors interested in financial assets, it is recommended to monitor the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. - Asset Views: It is recommended to pay more attention to liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specifically, investors should focus on CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be considered [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the decline of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the expanding risk of the Fed's independence are driving prices up. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has ended, and there is no upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: Steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, hot - metal production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory [8]. - Iron Ore: Hot - metal production has returned to a high level, and port inventory has slightly increased. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather factors, and changes in port ore inventory and policy dynamics [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Supply has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts has begun. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market sentiment is cautious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - Silicon Iron: Supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward driving force is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: Supply has slightly increased, and expectations are still fluctuating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: Middle - stream concentrated pick - up has led to continuous inventory reduction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: There are new disturbances in copper - ore supply, and copper prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and unexpected slowdown in domestic demand recovery [8]. - Alumina: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, and extreme market trends [8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected demand [8]. - Zinc: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery in zinc - ore supply [8]. - Lead: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and lead prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with key points including supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [8]. - Stainless Steel: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel market has risen significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - Tin: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including changes in the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of silicon prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental driving force is weak, and prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - LPG: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the progress of cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and there is intense competition between long and short positions. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Russian fuel - oil exports have reached a new high, and the fuel - oil market is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with key points including geopolitical situations and crude - oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely following crude - oil prices. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the key point being crude - oil prices [10]. - Methanol: The contradiction between near - term and far - term contracts is still large, and methanol is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: Urea has returned to a fundamental - driven decline and is waiting for new positive factors. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the actual implementation of exports and market - sentiment changes under long - term pressure [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Expectations are leading, and the market is pessimistic about future production - capacity pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including coal and oil price fluctuations, port - inventory rhythms, and device implementation [10]. - PX: Fundamental driving forces are limited, and prices mainly follow costs under the temporary support of PXN. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak - demand season [10]. - PTA: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including significant crude - oil fluctuations, macro - level changes, and unexpected weakness in the peak season [10]. - Short - Fiber: Raw - material support is average, and processing fees have improved under factory price - holding. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - Bottle Chips: The off - season of demand is deepening, with significant constraints. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and terminal demand [10]. - Propylene: The reduction in the volume of propane and PL commodities has boosted prices, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic macro - economic conditions [10]. - PP: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - Plastic: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and plastic is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices and domestic and international macro - economic conditions [10]. - Styrene: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including oil prices, macro - economic policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: Weak reality and strong expectations coexist, and PVC is oscillating. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including market sentiment, production starts, and demand [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products - Oils: The good - condition rate of US soybeans has continued to decline, and oils continued to oscillate strongly yesterday. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: Spot prices are dragging down the futures market, and futures prices are testing the lower - limit support. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - economic factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The number of incoming vehicles is at a high level, and both futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including unexpected demand, macro - economic factors, and weather [10]. - Pigs: Spot - market pressure continues, and the futures market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Rubber: It is running strongly and has returned above 16,000. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - economic changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: It continues to oscillate. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being significant crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - Cotton: There is strong support at the bottom, and cotton prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the key point being imports [10]. - Pulp: Market sentiment is stable, and pulp has entered a range - bound market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - Double - Glued Paper: Market sentiment has rebounded, and double - glued paper is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production starts [10]. - Logs: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and there is an expectation of spot - price increases. The short - term judgment is volatile, with key points including shipment volume and delivery volume [10].