Wanlian Securities·2025-09-17 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant slowdown in performance, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders. The sector's revenue for H1 2025 reached 580.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 127.508 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.56% [2][16] - The report highlights that the growth rates of revenue and net profit have declined compared to H1 2024, with revenue growth down by 1.30 percentage points and net profit growth down by 14.52 percentage points. The sector's gross margin and net margin have also decreased year-on-year [2][16] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth has slowed significantly, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries, while net profit growth ranked 20th [2][16] - The sector's gross margin and net margin have decreased year-on-year, although the expense ratio remains relatively stable [3][21] Sub-sector Performance - Snack foods, soft drinks, and fermented seasonings showed the highest revenue growth rates, with increases of 36.36%, 9.08%, and 4.66% respectively. In terms of net profit growth, beer, fermented seasonings, and soft drinks led with increases of 12.06%, 8.04%, and 4.89% respectively [2][25] - The beer sector achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit, with revenue increasing by 2.75% and net profit by 12.06% in H1 2025. Major beer companies like Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer performed well, with net profit growth exceeding 22% [8][41] Wine Sector - The wine sector experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit, with H1 2025 revenue at 241.508 billion yuan, down 0.86% year-on-year, and net profit at 94.561 billion yuan, down 1.18% year-on-year. This marks the first negative growth since H1 2014 [4][28] - High-end wines showed resilience, with revenue growth of 6.17% and net profit growth of 5.49%. The market share of leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye remained strong [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests structural investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the beverage, snack, and health food industries. It emphasizes the potential in energy drinks and innovative snack brands [10] - The beer, seasoning, and dairy sectors are identified as areas for marginal improvement, while the wine sector is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, with limited downside risk [10]