新能源及有色金属日报：基本面变化不大，镍不锈钢价格冲高回落-20250917

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [2]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory decline and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On September 16, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,910 yuan/ton and closed at 122,610 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 104,592 (+1,913) lots, and the open interest was 66,538 (-4,072) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise to 123,550 yuan/ton in the night session, then slightly declined, and finally closed slightly higher. In the day session, it showed a volatile trend, closing at 122,610 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - In the nickel ore market, it remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes. Although downstream nickel - iron prices rose, domestic iron mills' profits remained in the red, and nickel ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, supply remained abundant, and the September (first - phase) domestic trade premium remained at +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 124,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot premiums of refined nickel of various brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 300 yuan/ton, and nickel bean's premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 (+1,208) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 226,434 (+1,950) tons [1]. - Strategy - For nickel, short - term trading should be mainly range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On September 16, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 13,080 yuan/ton and closed at 12,970 yuan/ton, a - 0.27% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 230,776 (+49,842) lots, and the open interest was 130,786 (-4,171) lots [2]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract rose to 13,140 yuan/ton after opening but then fell due to short - selling pressure, hitting a low of 12,940 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,970 yuan/ton, forming a "long upper shadow" pattern, indicating strong resistance around 13,100 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by about 27% compared with the previous day, but the open interest decreased, reflecting fierce competition between long and short sides at key price levels, and some funds chose to leave the market to wait and see [2]. - In the spot market, affected by the strong performance of the morning futures market, traders raised their quotes, but downstream acceptance was low, and actual transactions were light. Then, as the market weakened, quotes were lowered, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines, and overall transaction volume was poor. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 275 - 575 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Strategy - For stainless steel, the unilateral strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].