欧盟考虑加?对俄罗斯制裁，化?延续震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the ratings include "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., based on the "Investment Rating Standard Explanation" [264]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EU is considering increasing sanctions on Russia, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. International crude oil futures have risen for three consecutive days. The EU's consideration of sanctioning oil companies importing Russian crude has raised concerns about supply - side disruptions. OPEC+ representatives will discuss production capacity this week, which may affect future production increases. Macro - level positive sentiment has provided some support for oil prices [2]. - The chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. China's weak retail sales data has led to expectations of consumption - stimulating policies. Chemical products have generally risen following the rebound of crude oil and coal, but the rebound is hesitant, and the basis of many varieties has weakened. During the refinery maintenance season, there are not many unexpected over - maintenance situations, and the reduction in chemical supply is insufficient to support a large - scale rebound [3]. - Overall, the short - term boost from macro - sentiment on chemical product prices is temporary, and the overall situation remains one of oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The market is affected by factors such as API data on US inventories, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and OPEC+ production policies. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors as the main risk [4][8]. - Asphalt: Option positions are concentrated at 3500. The asphalt futures price rebounds following crude oil. However, the high - level valuation of asphalt has contradictions in inventory and production scheduling, and the price is expected to oscillate [4][9]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Driven by geopolitical factors, fuel oil weakly rebounds following crude oil. The three main drivers of high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][9]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [4][11]. - Methanol: There are still contradictions between the near - term and far - term markets, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The price is affected by factors such as regional market prices, device maintenance, and port inventories [4][22]. - Urea: With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, urea's growth is under pressure and is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [4][23]. - Ethylene Glycol: The expectation of a loose supply - demand situation in the long - term suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to oscillate within a range [4][17]. - PX: The fundamental outlook is poor, and the processing fee is further compressed. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support level around 6600 [4][12]. - PTA: Polyester demand is average, and the spot market has sufficient supply, putting pressure on the basis. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support around 4600 [4][12]. - Short - Fiber: It fluctuates with costs, and demand is average. The price is expected to oscillate and sort out in the short term [4][19]. - Bottle Chips: There is limited driving force, and it passively follows the market. The price is expected to oscillate, with the absolute value following raw materials [4][20]. - PP: Slight increase in maintenance and support from the coal end lead to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as device maintenance, cost support, and supply - demand relationships [4][25]. - Propylene: PDH maintenance still provides support, and it oscillates in the short term [4]. - Plastic: Slight increase in maintenance leads to oscillations. The price is affected by factors such as oil prices, technical support, downstream demand, and supply - side pressure [4][24]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - disturbances, pure benzene rises intraday. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for new drivers [4][14]. - Benzene - Ethylene: Affected by macro and device disturbances, benzene - ethylene rebounds. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space due to inventory pressure [4][15]. - PVC: With a weak current situation and strong expectations, PVC oscillates. The price is affected by macro - policies, cost changes, and supply - demand relationships [4][28]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The price is affected by factors such as downstream demand, device maintenance, and cost [4][28]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - Period Spread: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in these spreads [30]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, along with their changes [31]. - Inter - Variety Spread: The report shows the inter - variety spread data for combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., and their changes [33].