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行业点评报告:8月社零增速环比放缓,消费动能仍待提振
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-17 08:27

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth rate in August 2025 has slowed down, primarily due to the diminishing effects of the "old-for-new" policy and a gradual recovery in consumer demand. However, with economic stimulus policies being implemented, the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the medium to long term, leading to an increase in household income and consumer willingness, which will benefit the food and beverage sector [4] - The liquor industry is approaching the peak demand season around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, showing signs of improvement in demand. The fundamentals of the liquor market are expected to stabilize and trend upwards as consumption scenarios recover. The current bottoming out presents long-term investment value [4] - The report recommends focusing on new channels, new products, and new markets to identify new consumption targets that align with industry development trends. Specific recommended stocks include Weilian Meishi, Yanjinpuzi, Ximai Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Youfu Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Co., Ltd. [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a retail sales growth rate of 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points [5] - The growth rates for food, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol categories in August 2025 are 5.8%, 2.8%, and -2.3% respectively, indicating a month-on-month decline in the tobacco and alcohol category due to high base effects and lack of consumption scenarios [5][6] Subsector Observations - The liquor industry is currently in a bottom recovery phase, with sales under pressure but showing signs of improvement due to the upcoming festive season. The fundamentals are gradually stabilizing [7] - Ximai Food is accelerating its health business by launching new products in the health food segment, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine ingredients and weight loss products, which are expected to become significant growth drivers for the company [7]