Group 1: Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank super - week is coming, and the trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may continue, causing non - ferrous metals to fluctuate strongly. The degree of interest - rate cut fulfillment will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The central bank super - week is here, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation trading may continue. The fulfillment of the interest - rate cut will affect the subsequent trend. China's economic data in August shows a weak situation, and the expectation of policy easing is rising. The weak US employment data boosts the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US dollar is weak. The demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally during the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. - Non - ferrous Metals Strategy: - Copper: The recent rise in copper prices has suppressed domestic downstream demand, and domestic social inventories have increased. However, the total inventory is still low. US manufacturing is in an expansion cycle, and copper demand is strong. Domestic smelter production may decline in September. The price center of Shanghai copper is expected to move up, with a support range of 79,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 81,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - Zinc: The trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is volatile. Zinc prices are stronger overseas and weaker domestically. Downstream procurement is relatively light, and inventories are slightly increasing. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,200 yuan/ton [4][14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: - Aluminum: The main short - positions in Shanghai aluminum have increased. It is recommended to exit long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and production capacity is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/ton. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: The price is supported by high scrap purchase prices, and demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5][14]. - Tin: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to be bearish, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to reduce long positions [6][16]. - Lead: The US dollar is回调, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation still exists. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and there may be a resumption of production in October. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][17]. - Nickel: The price fluctuates due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. The supply of refined nickel is increasing slowly, and demand is stable. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [9][17]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support is effective. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may pick up. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton [9][17]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are provided, such as copper closing at 80,940 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, zinc at 22,310 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, etc. [18] Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metals contracts are presented, including alumina, copper, zinc, etc. [20] Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper spot price at 81,100 yuan/ton with a 0.02% change, zinc at 22,250 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change, etc. [21][23] Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships [26][29][31]. Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant arbitrage charts are provided, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [58][60]. Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal, relevant option charts are provided, such as copper's option historical volatility, zinc's option weighted implied volatility, etc. [75][77].
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250917
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-09-17 08:44