8月经济数据点评：基本面对债市的定价权在边际提升

1. Report Title and Industry - Title: "The Pricing Power of the Economic Fundamentals on the Bond Market is Increasing Marginally - Commentary on August Economic Data" [1][5] - Industry: Fixed Income 2. Report Key Points - Overall Economic Situation in August 2025: The economic data in August 2025 was generally weak. The year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and fixed - asset investment declined. The slowdown in production was mainly due to the drag from exports and downstream consumption [2][5]. - Production End: Affected by the decline in exports and downstream consumption, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries in August decreased by 0.5 pct to 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rates of sub - items in electricity, heat, gas, and water, and manufacturing decreased by 0.9 and 0.5 pct to 2.4% and 5.7% respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index continued to decline by 0.2 pct to 5.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 0.4% [5][7]. - Investment End: The year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment and private investment continued to decline. The estimated year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in August decreased by 1.1 pct to - 6.3%. The investment growth rates in the three major fields all slowed down. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate sub - items in August decreased by 1.0, 4.5, and 2.4 pct to - 1.3%, - 6.4%, and - 19.4% respectively [7]. - Real Estate: There were differences among financing, investment, and sales. The year - on - year decline in the funds available to real estate development enterprises narrowed by 2.8 pct to - 12.5%, but the year - on - year declines in development investment, commercial housing sales volume, and sales area widened. The year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.6 and 0.7 pct to - 11.0% and - 14.8% respectively. The situation of selling commercial housing by sacrificing price for volume may still continue [7]. - Manufacturing: The investment growth rates of most equipment manufacturing industries declined significantly. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of transportation equipment, special equipment, and automobiles decreased by 36, 13, and 8 pct to 9%, - 16%, and 11% respectively. The year - on - year declines in investment in industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals narrowed but were still in negative growth [7]. - Consumption End: Consumption was lower than expected, mainly affected by the decline in durable goods consumption. Urban consumption was weaker than rural consumption. The year - on - year growth rates of total social retail sales and social retail sales of units above the designated size decreased by 0.3 and 0.4 pct to 3.4% and 2.4% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of commodity retail sales and commodity retail sales of units above the designated size both decreased by 0.4 pct to 3.6% and 2.6% respectively. Catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size recovered under the boost of summer cultural and tourism [7]. - Bond Market: The bond market had a repair market around the release of economic data on September 15. The yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond once dropped to 1.785%. The supply and demand sides of the economic fundamentals in August were under pressure. Considering the high base in the fourth quarter of last year, the year - on - year economic readings in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to face pressure, and the pricing power of the economic fundamentals on the bond market is increasing marginally [7]. 3. Core View The economic data in August 2025 was generally weak, with production, investment, and consumption all under pressure. The bond market had a repair market around the release of economic data. Considering the high base in the fourth quarter of last year, the year - on - year economic readings in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to face pressure, and the pricing power of the economic fundamentals on the bond market is increasing marginally [2][7].