瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2601 contract of PVC fluctuates with a bullish bias, closing at 4,973 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.81% week-on-week to 79.94% last week on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 4% week-on-week to 47.5% last week, with the pipe开工率 up 4.13% to 37.61% and the profile开工率 up 0.83% to 39.22%. The PVC social inventory increased by 1.75% week-on-week to 93.42 million tons last week. This week, the impact of the shutdown of Beiyuan and Jinchuan's devices will expand, and new maintenance devices such as Ningxia Yinglite and Haohua will be added, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline significantly. A total of 900,000 tons of devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production in September, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. Affected by pre - holiday stocking in the domestic market, the开工率 of some product enterprises has recently increased. The terminal real - estate market is weak, continuously dragging down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The profitability of caustic soda is considerable, weakening the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene. From a macro perspective, the talks between China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key domestic industries is about to be introduced. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 5,050 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,973 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 13 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 726,307 hands, a decrease of 330,119 hands. The open interest is 1,123,935 hands, a decrease of 14,778 hands. The long positions of the top 20 futures are 847,891 hands, a decrease of 8,484 hands; the short positions are 945,472 hands, a decrease of 21,500 hands; the net long positions are - 97,581 hands, an increase of 13,016 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,020 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,803.46 yuan/ton, up 53.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,854.38 yuan/ton, up 36.88 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2,718.33 yuan/ton, up 53.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2,560 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 509 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 546 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall开工率 of PVC is 79.94%, with the ethylene - based PVC开工率 at 81.31% and the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 at 79.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81% and 3.17% respectively. The total social inventory of PVC is 53.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 47.83 million tons, an increase of 0.02 million tons; in the South China region, it is 5.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons. The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,206 million square meters, an increase of 4,841.68 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 638,731 million square meters, an increase of 5,409.57 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.28%, an increase of 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.42%, a decrease of 0.59%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.02%, a decrease of 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.98%, a decrease of 0.34% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 15, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,670 to 4,860 yuan/ton. From September 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.94%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. As of September 11th, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.75% to 93.42 million tons [3].