Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 09:17Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The production profit of steel mills has improved significantly due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, and it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August [2] - At the end of the traditional consumption off - season for downstream products, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is optimistically expected. Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, the anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern, the market purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released [2] - The willingness of inventory holders to sell goods is relatively high, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable [2] - Technically, the position volume decreases and the price corrects, with differences in long - short trading. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, or go long lightly on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,799 lots, an increase of 44 lots; the main contract position volume is 127,750 lots, a decrease of 3,036 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 95,265 tons, a decrease of 480 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, a decrease of 200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 955 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2] - The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 269,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, an increase of 39,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, an increase of 48,416,800 square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - Retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. The growth was mainly due to back - to - school shopping, with outstanding performances in online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales [2] - After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. Despite economic challenges, supported by salary growth and the stock market wealth effect, US consumer spending remains strong [2] - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has restricted issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is accelerating its release, and the output is expected to rebound significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped significantly, weakening the raw material cost support [2]