瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - situation shows that US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have been growing for 11 consecutive months. The market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed from now to the end of the year. In the fundamentals, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, while sulfuric acid prices have risen significantly, giving smelters large profit margins and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, leading to an expansion of import losses, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an approaching export window. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. Galvanized sheet inventory pressure is not high, and the processing enterprise operating rate has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, downstream buyers purchase as needed, the trading atmosphere is dull, domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium remains low. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting zinc prices. Technically, open interest has decreased, prices are adjusting, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 2,984.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,271 lots, up 1,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 12,726 lots, down 1,695 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 52,720 tons, up 550 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 94,649 tons, up 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 48,975 tons, down 1,175 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,020 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 120 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 41.33 dollars/ton, up 14.57 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons; zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.47%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.47%, down 0.28%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.31%, up 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.93%, down 0.12% [3] 3.7 Industry News - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months. The growth was mainly due to back - to - school shopping, with outstanding performances in online retail, clothing, and sports goods sales. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed has been lagging in its response, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut from now to the end of the year [3]