Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 09:17Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that the US consumer spending remains strong due to wage growth and the stock - market wealth effect, which may influence the Fed's interest - rate decisions. In the nickel market, the domestic nickel ore port inventory is decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight supply situation. The overall refined nickel production has increased slightly, while the downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,790 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,445 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 58,829 hands, down 7,709 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 29,437 hands, up 104 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 226,434 tons, up 1,950 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 26,141 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,800 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is also 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 188.63 dollars/ton, down 2.95 dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons, and the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars, and the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons, and the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons, and the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 3.98 million tons, and the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving positive growth for the 11th consecutive month. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed has been slow to react, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year [3].