瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have shown little overall fluctuation and remain at relatively high levels. Most downstream and terminal enterprises maintain a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, resulting in a cold overall transaction in the spot market. The spot premium remains at 200 yuan/ton, and domestic inventories have increased. LME inventories have rebounded, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Technically, with a decrease in positions and price adjustments, there are differences in long - short trading, facing a pressure level of 275,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 272,540 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is down 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 23,007 lots, down 1,266 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 2,009 lots, up 140 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 185 tons, up 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,204 tons, down 106 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,320 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 148.02 US dollars/ton, down 16.02 US dollars. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fees is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fees is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months. Real retail sales after inflation adjustment increased by 2.1% year - on - year, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth. The US Treasury Secretary believes that the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year. In the tin market, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The employment market is in a balanced state. On the supply side, the increase in production in July was due to multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow [3].