瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Total inventory pressure is not significant, with production enterprise inventory increasing by 0.68% to 49.03 million tons and social inventory decreasing by 2.44% to 54.66 million tons [2] - This week, devices such as Jinghai Chemical and Guoneng Xinjiang will restart, and new maintenance devices are planned for Jilin Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month [2] - The expected increase in the loss of PE device maintenance in September, but considering the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the industry's supply pressure is difficult to improve [2] - The shed film enters the peak season, and the orders for agricultural films are rising sharply; the demand for packaging films is driven by domestic Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and overseas Christmas stocking, and orders still have room for growth [2] - Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to geopolitical conflict support. In terms of the macro - environment, the talks between China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of key - industry growth - stabilizing policies in China are about to be introduced [2] - Technically, for the daily K - line of L2601, pay attention to the support around 7220 and the pressure around 7295 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene is 7245 yuan/ton, with a change of 11; the 1 - month contract closing price is 7245 yuan/ton, with a change of 11; the 5 - month contract closing price is 7289 yuan/ton, with a change of 14; the 9 - month contract closing price is 7299 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 [2] - The trading volume is 146,481 hands, a decrease of 109,562 hands; the open interest is 520,256 hands, a decrease of 3,820 hands [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 54, a decrease of 21; the long position of the top 20 futures holders is 376,996 hands, a decrease of 917 hands; the short position is 434,704 hands, an increase of 3,546 hands; the net long position is - 57,708 hands, a decrease of 4,463 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7248.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87; in East China, it is 7345.24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48 [2] - The basis is 3.7, a decrease of 11.87 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 65.44 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.13; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 604.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.62 [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it is 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 78.04%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film is 51.3%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points; for pipes, it is 31.67%, an increase of 1.34 percentage points; for agricultural films, it is 24.12%, an increase of 3.94 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 6.35%, a decrease of 0.38; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.11%, a decrease of 0.22 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 10.07%, a decrease of 0.12; for at - the - money call options, it is 10.05%, a decrease of 0.14 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, China's total polyethylene production was 612,800 tons, a decrease of 3.12% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 78.04%, a decrease of 2.51 percentage points from the previous period [2] - From September 5th to 11th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [2] - As of September 17th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 490,300 tons, an increase of 0.68% from the previous period; as of September 12th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 546,600 tons, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous period [2]