Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 09:28Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase, while the estimated ending inventory will decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market [2] - In the domestic market, inventory remains low, market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinners' operating rates remain low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,910 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 34,624 lots, up 325 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 390 lots, down 218 lots [2] - The main contract holdings of cotton are 491,292 lots, down 1,339 lots; the main contract holdings of cotton yarn are 19,602 lots, down 680 lots [2] - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 4,615 sheets, down 144 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 87 sheets, down 2 sheets [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,419 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,224 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,771 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2] - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,465 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - The daily import cotton profit is 1,076 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days [2] - The monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1991.5 thousand tons, down 73.5 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 11.97%, up 0.91%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 11.96%, up 0.87% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.6%, down 0.15%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.12%, up 0.07% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, compared with 54% the previous week and 39% the same period last year [2] - ICE cotton futures rose on Tuesday due to the falling US dollar exchange rate. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.84 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 67.68 cents per pound [2] - The USDA's September global cotton supply - and - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 25.622 million tons, up 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is up 183 thousand tons to 25.872 million tons; and global ending inventory is down 168 thousand tons to 15.924 million tons [2]