瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory level of methanol in the mainland has decreased and remains relatively low. The port inventory has slightly increased this week. The Jiangsu mainstream area has maintained good提货, and the restart of olefin plants in Zhejiang has supported the recovery of consumption capacity. The East China region has shown de - stocking, while the South China port inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week, and the specific accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2376 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1; the 1 - 5 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 17656. The main contract's open interest is 836608 lots, with a daily increase of 31213. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 166333 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10781, with a daily decrease of 5350 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2275 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20. The East China - Northwest price difference is 160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 101 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 21. The CFR price in the Chinese main port is 265 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 292 euros/ton, with a daily decrease of 1. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a daily increase of 0.08 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 108.95 tons (weekly), with an increase of 8.72; the inventory in South China ports is 46.08 tons (weekly), with an increase of 3.54. The methanol import profit is 1.97 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.16. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, with a decrease of 11.75. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342600 tons (weekly), with an increase of 1500. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58% (weekly), with a decrease of 0.26 [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate is 43.13% (weekly), with an increase of 5.4; the dimethyl ether start - up rate is 4.86% (weekly), with an increase of 0.03. The acetic acid start - up rate is 83.11% (weekly), with a decrease of 1.13. The MTBE start - up rate is 61.69% (weekly), with a decrease of 0.53. The olefin start - up rate is 81.57% (weekly), with a decrease of 3.15. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 946 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 11.6% (daily), with a decrease of 1.12; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.19% (daily), with a decrease of 0.38. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.21% (daily), with a decrease of 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.2% (daily), with a decrease of 0.35 [2] Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. The East China region had de - stocking, with a decrease of 1.56 tons; the South China region had inventory accumulation, with an increase of 2.31 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [2]