瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the alumina industry are in a relatively stable supply - demand stage, with stable production and improved spot market transactions. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the electrolytic aluminum industry may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand, with overseas interest - rate cut expectations driving the price up. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is also recommended to trade with a light position within a range, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of the cast - aluminum industry may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and recovering demand, with a dull spot market. It is suggested to trade with a light position within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 20,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 65 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 16,514 lots. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,712 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars [2]. - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,937 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 42 yuan, up 3 yuan. The main contract position increased by 38,407 lots. The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 1,500 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the main cast - aluminum alloy contract was 20,460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was - 40 yuan, down 25 yuan. The main contract position increased by 2,154 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of cast - aluminum alloy was 590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 40 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - The SHFE aluminum premium/discount in Shanghai Wumaomao was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 15.98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 28 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 4,900.05 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.06 tons [2]. - China's alumina export volume was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons. The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance decreased by 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.6 million tons to 58.6 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 55,884.22 tons to 248,198.71 tons; the export volume increased by 21,416.99 tons to 40,987.71 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points. The aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 53.4 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, unchanged. The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. - The aluminum alloy output was 153.6 million tons, down 13.3 million tons. The automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum was 6.63%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.18%, down 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 11.12%, up 0.0002 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.15, down 0.033 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to expand service consumption, covering cross - border cooperation, sports events, and market access in multiple fields [2]. - US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing by 2.1% year - on - year, which may influence the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [2]. - Pan Gongsheng pointed out that the international monetary system may evolve towards a pattern of co - existence and competition among a few sovereign currencies, and new technologies will drive the evolution of cross - border payment systems [2]. - As of the end of August, the national passenger - vehicle inventory decreased by 130,000 vehicles month - on - month, with rational production control by car companies from May to August [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The main alumina contract weakened in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of bauxite was affected by the rainy season in Guinea, but domestic alumina production was stable. The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants was good, and the overall supply - demand was stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The main SHFE aluminum contract declined in a volatile manner, with decreased positions, spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The supply of alumina was stable, and the profit of smelters was good, resulting in high - level production. The demand from downstream processing plants improved, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased. The option market was bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The main cast - aluminum alloy contract declined in a volatile manner, with increased positions, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, restricting production. The demand from downstream die - casting plants improved, but the spot market was dull. It is recommended to trade with a light position within a range [2].