有色回落，关注9月议息会议结果

Group 1: Report Core View - Copper prices decreased with reduced positions. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, downstream buyers were hesitant as copper prices rose in September. Technically, LME copper reached the upper limit of the previous trading range, also prompting long - position closing. Copper prices have been rising with increasing positions since last week, breaking through the 80,000 mark, and are expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the Fed's September interest - rate decision [3]. - Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 21,000 mark. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced resistance at the March high. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the 21,000 mark and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [4]. - Shanghai nickel decreased with reduced positions in the morning and stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position volume continuously declining. Due to the upcoming Fed's interest - rate decision, short - term long - position holders were eager to close positions. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of domestic nickel ore and the inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise, which was negative for nickel prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short battle at 122,000 and the Fed's September interest - rate decision [5]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate their adjacent mines in central Chile. The Los Bronces copper mine of Anglo American and the Andina copper mine of Codelco will be integrated to create a new mining area. Once approved (expected before 2030), the project is expected to produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [7]. - The research department of Commerzbank stated that affected by the interweaving of long and short factors, aluminum prices may show a sideways - oscillating trend in the short term. Last week, aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark but are currently under downward pressure. To curb over - capacity, investment in the aluminum industry is regulated, which may also ease the decline in aluminum prices. Aluminum production may stagnate or even decline slightly in the next few months [8]. - On September 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [8]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [33][35][37].