Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 09:22Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 17,100 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,006.5 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 89,129 lots, down 1,165 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,276 lots, down 402 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 59,417 tons, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME lead inventory was 227,850 tons, up 2,225 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The basis of the main lead contract was - 150 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 49.61 dollars/ton, down 2.07 dollars [2]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, up 42 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the average operating rate of primary lead was 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons [2]. Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons [2]. - The global lead ore production of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of the waste battery market was 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,153.73 points, up 3.85 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [2]. - The monthly new - energy vehicle production was 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. Market Outlook - On the supply side, after the end of maintenance, some primary lead enterprises have gradually resumed production, but the production of recycled lead is restricted by environmental inspections and low waste battery recovery rates [2]. - On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is approaching, with expectations of increased demand in emerging fields [2]. - In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventory has decreased, domestic inventory has increased, and the overall inventory remains unchanged, indicating that demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction [2]. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [2].