瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rose. Macroscopically, "Qiushi" pointed out the need to rectify the chaotic situation of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. In the "involution" - affected areas, effective governance should be carried out in accordance with laws and regulations. The self - regulatory role of industry associations should be better utilized to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the positive expectation of anti - involution policies still support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. Operationally, maintain a bullish trading strategy above 3100, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,168.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume was 1,963,371 lots, up 7,123 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 241,258 lots, down 15,214 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 269,359 tons, down 6,300 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,290.00, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) was 3,374, down 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,350.00, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,220.00, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 122.00 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/wet ton, down 10.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) was 1,540.00, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded, yuan/ton) was 2,290.00, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,060.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 13,849.47 million tons, up 24.15 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.76 million tons, up 3.10 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 633.61 million tons, up 10.07 million tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 128.95 million tons, down 7.58 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 211.93 million tons, down 6.75 million tons. The rebar capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 166.63 million tons, down 4.71 million tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 487.23 million tons, up 18.57 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 901.00 million tons, down 38.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 643,109 million square meters, down 4,378 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801 million square meters, down 4,595 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 40,229.00 million square meters, up 307.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; produced 60.80 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons. The Jiangsu Iron and Steel Association stated that it was urgent to rectify "involution - style" competition. Representatives of steel enterprises exchanged views on issues such as enterprise operation, green development, intelligent manufacturing, and product development. Facing the current situation of imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, they agreed that it was urgent to rectify "involution - style" competition, and enterprises should jointly maintain market order, expand overseas business, and strengthen international cooperation [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]