市场情绪平稳，钢矿震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.06%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. However, cost increases and production restrictions are relatively favorable. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated and declined, with a daily decrease of 0.38%. Currently, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily decrease of 0.12%. Currently, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's air conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. Refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 70.189 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Washing machine production was 10.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 78.263 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Color TV production was 18.016 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%; from January to August, the cumulative production was 125.821 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [6]. - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 732,000 units, a 4% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and a 6% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 15.497 million units, a 9% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 774,000 units, a 3% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period in September last year and an 18% increase compared to the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 18.816 million units, a 12% year-on-year increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 438,000 units, a 6% year-on-year increase compared to the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy passenger car market was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a 25% year-on-year increase [7]. - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a 1.5% month-on-month decrease; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a 0.4% month-on-month decrease. From January to August, key steel enterprises cumulatively produced 555 million tons of crude steel, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.2852 million tons; cumulatively produced 498 million tons of pig iron, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.0505 million tons; cumulatively produced 562 million tons of steel, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3131 million tons [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,230 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,306 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The spot price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,420 yuan, 3,340 yuan, and 3,457 yuan respectively, all down 10 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,060 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 795 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.60 yuan and 23.86 yuan respectively, up 0.13 yuan and 0.17 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.72 yuan, up 0.22 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.90 yuan, up 0.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,168 yuan, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 1,242,094 lots, a decrease of 723,262 lots, and an open interest of 1,963,371 lots, an increase of 7,123 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,390 yuan, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 500,938 lots, a decrease of 136,665 lots, and an open interest of 1,391,462 lots, an increase of 523 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 804.5 yuan, down 0.12%, with a trading volume of 254,268 lots, a decrease of 143,342 lots, and an open interest of 534,465 lots, an increase of 2,092 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port and 247 steel mills), and steel mill production (including blast furnace and electric furnace) [15][22][29]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing by 67,500 tons month-on-month, continuing the high-level decline. However, the production reduction space during the peak season is questionable, and the inventory continues to accumulate to a high level, so the supply pressure relief is limited. At the same time, the demand for rebar continues to be weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions running at a low level. Both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, and there are no signs of marginal improvement. Due to the poor performance of downstream industries, the weak demand is likely to pressure steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, pressuring steel prices. Relatively favorable factors are cost increases and production restrictions. With the game of long and short factors, steel prices are expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, steel mills are actively resuming production, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil has increased by 109,000 tons month-on-month, returning to the high level of the year, increasing the pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons month-on-month, and the high-frequency transactions have also rebounded. However, the output of cold-rolled products, the main downstream product, continues to decline, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which may drag down the demand for hot-rolled coil. The relatively favorable factor is the low-price advantage, and exports may improve marginally. The improvement strength of hot-rolled coil under the different situations of domestic and foreign demand needs to be tracked. In general, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are stable under the situation of increasing supply and demand. Coupled with production restrictions, it continues to support the relatively strong operation of coil prices. However, the sustainability of demand improvement needs to be tracked. Once demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate under high supply, and prices will be pressured. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - Iron ore: There are changes at both supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both rebounded, returning to the previous high levels. And with the approaching holiday, the expectation of replenishment has fermented, and the demand for ore is performing well, continuing to support the ore price. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the steel market are constantly accumulating, and profits are continuously shrinking, so the room for demand recovery is limited. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, but the overseas ore shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. Coupled with the rapid recovery of domestic ore supply, the ore supply is expected to increase. In general, benefiting from pre-holiday replenishment and policy favorable expectations, ore prices continue to operate at a high level. However, the resilience of ore demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals, and high-valued ore prices are still likely to be pressured. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [39].