瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2601 showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 2,608 yuan/ton. The average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% week-on-week to 83.4%. On the demand side, the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all saw an increase in their operating rates. The national liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 7.99% week-on-week to 356,800 tons, resuming the destocking trend. There are planned maintenance devices in the Northwest and Northeast this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline week-on-week. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali devices in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Alumina enterprises' profits are shrinking but there is no cost-driven production cut yet, and the amount of caustic soda delivered is still high. Recently, the spot price of liquid caustic soda has shown regional differentiation. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, and technically, pay attention to the support near 2,530 and the resistance near 2,630 [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,608 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 106,433 lots, up 498 lots; the top 20 net positions were -11,071 lots, up 4,619 lots; the main contract trading volume was 309,038 lots, down 33,664 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,608 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract was 2,692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - In Shandong, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was 820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted price per 100% of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -45 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was 940 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 641 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.4%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8%. As of September 11th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 356,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 7.99% and a year-on-year increase of 15.48% [1]