Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 09:21Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report is generally bearish, but domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic imported soybean supply suppress the market. Today, rapeseed meal saw increased positions and price decline, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up, which exerts pressure on prices. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and the supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil's upward trend has slowed [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active contract closed at 9999 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; rapeseed meal's active contract closed at 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan. ICE rapeseed's active contract closed at 640.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.7 Canadian dollars; rapeseed's active contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread was 466 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread was 99 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main contract positions were 336743 lots, up 3703 lots; rapeseed meal's were 399317 lots, up 22735 lots [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Rapeseed oil's net long positions were 22886 lots, down 3903 lots; rapeseed meal's were - 41680 lots, down 27612 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 8202 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 10104, down 110 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10060 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil's average price was 10125 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Imported rapeseed's import cost was 7996.89 yuan/ton, up 97.04 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main contract basis was 7 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; rapeseed meal's was 110 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - Substitute product prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1410 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import volume: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume for the month was 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import volume for the month was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 tons, unchanged; imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 12.79%, down 0.27% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed's on - disk pressing profit was 866 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30 tons, down 1.51 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 was 4.33 tons, up 1.3 tons; rapeseed meal's was 3.57 tons, up 0.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales for catering revenue for the month was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal's at - the - money call option implied volatility was 17.57%, down 0.91%; put option was 17.56%, down 0.92%. Rapeseed oil's at - the - money call and put option implied volatility was 14.25%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal's 20 - day historical volatility was 15.96%, up 0.01%; 60 - day was 22.2%, up 0.01%. Rapeseed oil's 20 - day historical volatility was 7.91%, up 0.42%; 60 - day was 12.74%, down 0.48% [2]. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.34% supported by the strength of Chicago soybean and soybean oil futures. Futures prices rose 4.9 - 8.5 Canadian dollars, with the November contract up 8.5 Canadian dollars to 640.8 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' average expectation. Production and ending stocks are both up, making the report bearish. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and aquaculture boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution and potential increase in imported soybean supply suppress the market. The rapeseed meal price declined with increased positions today [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up 750 thousand tons to 20 million tons, exports are down 900 thousand tons, domestic use is up 500 thousand tons, and ending stocks are up 1.34 million tons. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and supply - demand is loose, but low operating rates and fewer near - month purchases ease supply pressure. Rapeseed oil's upward trend slowed due to the decline of soybean and palm oil [2][3][5]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and China - US trade policies [3]