银河期货花生日报-20250917

Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated September 17, 2025, provided by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of domestic peanuts and imported peanuts have remained stable. Although the supply is still low and downstream demand is weak, peanut prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short - term. Peanut oil and peanut meal prices are also stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit is acceptable. The 11 - contract peanuts are starting to strengthen and will experience short - term bottom - range fluctuations. It is expected that the output of the new peanut season will be similar to last year, and with the decrease in planting costs and the partial listing of new peanuts, the 11 - contract peanuts will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [5][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7868, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 12 (up 33.33%) and an open interest of 438 (up 0.46%); PK510 closed at 7818, up 2 (0.03%), with a trading volume of 2,259 (down 56.49%) and an open interest of 10,545 (down 11.45%); PK601 closed at 7828, up 8 (0.10%), with a trading volume of 8,669 (down 54.73%) and an open interest of 46,165 (up 2.74%) [3] - Spot Market: In Henan Nanyang, peanuts were priced at 8600 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan/ton); in Shandong Jining and Linyi, they were 8400 yuan/ton (stable). The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350 yuan/ton (stable), Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), peanut oil was 14670 yuan/ton (stable), and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8560 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8500 yuan/ton (stable) [3] - Spread: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 40 (up 6); the PK04 - PK10 spread was 50 (stable); the PK10 - PK01 spread was - 10 (down 6) [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - In the Northeast, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4 yuan/jin (up 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.1 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha common peanuts was 4.2 - 4.35 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin (stable). The price of imported Sudanese refined peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and Senegalese oil peanuts were 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton (stable). Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the pre - stop mainstream transaction price at 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price at 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was priced at 14800 yuan/ton (stable), and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton (stable). Rizhao soybean meal was 2970 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the unit - protein spread between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, with peanut meal expected to be weak in the short - term [5][9] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side: The 11 - contract peanuts are fluctuating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilization, one can try to go long on the 05 - contract peanuts [12] - Spread: Wait and see [13] - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, peanut oil mill's profit, peanut oil price, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between the 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between the 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25]