螺纹热卷日报-20250917

Group 1: Market Information 1. Futures Prices - For rebar futures, RB05 was at 3237 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3074 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and RB01 at 3168 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - For hot - rolled coil futures, HC05 was at 3388 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan from yesterday), HC10 at 3424 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), and HC01 at 3390 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [3]. 2. Spot Prices - Rebar spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3230 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng was 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices: Tianjin Hegang was 3340 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Lecong Rigang was 3400 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), etc [3]. 3. Price Spreads - Rebar: The spread between Shanghai and Beijing was 70 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Jinan was - 50 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), etc [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spread between Shanghai and Tianjin was 20 yuan/ton (unchanged), between Shanghai and Lecong was 20 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [3]. 4. Profits - Rebar: 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 85 yuan (up 5 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was - 233 yuan (up 9 yuan), and 01 - contract was - 132 yuan (up 1 yuan) [3]. - Hot - rolled coil: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was 77 yuan (down 7 yuan from yesterday), 10 - contract was 117 yuan (down 5 yuan), and 01 - contract was 90 yuan (down 13 yuan) [3]. Group 2: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (- 10), Beijing Jingye was 3190 yuan (- 10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+ 20), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan (-) [8]. 2. Trading Strategy - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with overall weak spot trading volume, weaker than yesterday [9]. - This week, molten iron production increased slightly, less than expected. National building - material production decreased as rebar production was cut due to large losses, while hot - rolled coil production still increased [9]. - Inventories continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Downstream demand improved as the temperature dropped. Hangzhou's inventory was depleted faster, and rebar warehouse receipts were quickly cancelled [9]. - With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering pre - National - Day restocking, the black - metal sector has support. If downstream demand in October recovers more than expected, steel prices may rise further. The Fed's interest - rate cut schedule and the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect the market [9]. - It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal - mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9]. 3. Specific Trading Suggestions - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, and consider going long at low prices with a light position [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread [10]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money options for RB01 [10]. 4. Important Information - In Inner Mongolia, from January to June 2025, coal mines with monthly raw - coal production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity had a total capacity of 34.6 million tons/year. As of September 16, 5 coal mines (with a total capacity of 19.3 million tons/year) were ordered to suspend production for 5 - 7 days due to safety hazards, and 4 have resumed normal production [10][11]. - On the 16th, there was news that coking and steel enterprises in Tangshan started environmental - protection production restrictions. Steel - mill blast furnaces were shut down by 40%, and coking enterprises extended the coking time by 30%. Currently, some enterprises have received the notice, and individual coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The overall operating rate of coking plants in Tangshan is about 75%. Steel mills have received the notice, and the specific implementation plan is yet to be determined [12]. Group 3: Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the basis, price spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts over different periods, including 01, 05, and 10 contracts, as well as regional price spreads and profits [17][18][19] etc.