银河期货航运日报-20250917

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Container Shipping: Spot freight rates are in a downward channel, and the decline is expected to slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year due to tariff suppression. The 10 - contract valuation has room to decline, and trading strategies include weak oscillations for single - sided trading and specific arbitrage operations [8][9][11]. - Dry Bulk Shipping: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - and - a - half - month high. Large - vessel market freight rates are expected to be supported in the short term but lack strong upward momentum. Medium - vessel market transportation demand has certain support and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - Oil Tanker Transportation: The oil transportation market shows obvious differentiation. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - Market Data - Futures Disk: On September 17, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1,109.7, down 60.0 or 5.13%. Different contracts showed different price and volume changes [5]. - Container Freight Rates: SCFIS European Line was at 1440.24 points, down 8.06% week - on - week and 62.24% year - on - year. Different routes had different freight rate changes [5]. - Fuel Costs: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [5]. - Market Analysis and Strategies - Analysis: Spot freight rates are falling, and the impact of the closure of the Polish border on China - Europe freight trains continues. The freight rate center in the second half of September dropped to around 1400 - 1700 US dollars/FEU. The market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and tariffs [8][9]. - Strategies: Single - sided trading is expected to be weakly oscillating. For the 10 - contract, short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage operations at low levels and enter 2 - 4 positive arbitrage at low levels [11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - Market Data - Freight Index: On September 16, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 0.05% to 2154 points. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 1.1% to 3189 points, while the Panamax vessel freight index fell 1.8% to 1968 points [18][19]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels had different freight rate changes on September 16 and as of September 12 [18][20]. - Shipping Data: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazilian grain exports in September are expected to increase [21]. - Market Analysis and Outlook - Analysis: The rise in Capesize vessel freight rates offset the decline of smaller vessels. The large - vessel market is supported by Australian end - of - season cargo releases, but the cargo volume is expected to decrease from mid - October. The medium - vessel market has certain transportation demand support, mainly in a fluctuating trend [22]. Oil Tanker Transportation - Market Data - Freight Index: On September 16, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1137, up 0.8% week - on - week and 26.76% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 609, up 0.66% week - on - week and down 4.55% year - on - year [28][29]. - Average Earnings: VLCC average earnings were $57,975 per day, up 58.71% week - on - week and 90.00% year - on - year; Suezmax average earnings were $45,871 per day, up 43.38% week - on - week and down 14.04% year - on - year [28]. - Crude Oil Futures Prices: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [28]. - Market Analysis and Outlook - Analysis: The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. The VLCC market is improving due to tight supply and slightly higher - than - expected cargo volume [29]. - Industry News - OPEC+ representatives will discuss updating member production capacity estimates in Vienna from September 18 - 19, aiming to determine new production baselines and 2027 production targets [30]. - On September 15, oil prices continued to rise due to supply interruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Trump's call for NATO to stop buying Russian oil [31].