9月美联储：注定“两难”的降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The consensus in the market anticipates a rate cut in September, but the policy dynamics remain complex due to labor market cooling and persistent inflation concerns[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to provide guidance on future easing through the dot plot and economic forecasts, rather than committing to a clear rate path[5] - The dot plot is expected to shift downward with increased dispersion, but the median may not indicate the market's expectation of three rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Labor Market Insights - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 are likely to be slightly revised down due to weaker-than-expected labor market data and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls[5] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with most officials maintaining a judgment of two rate cuts within the year[5] - The core PCE inflation forecast may be slightly adjusted downwards compared to June's pessimistic outlook, reflecting moderate price transmission from tariffs[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts within the year, which may lead to increased sensitivity to data fluctuations[9] - Political pressures and the potential for a Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could significantly impact inflation and monetary policy decisions[8] - The labor market's deterioration rate and inflation trends will be critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's future actions[8]