集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250917

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].