Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Focus on the central bank's attitude. The bond market was less affected by the strong performance of the A-share index. The better-than-expected issuance of 20-year new bonds in the primary market drove the bond futures up in the afternoon. The market has low expectations for interest rate cuts. If the Fed cuts interest rates by more than 25bp tonight, it may drive the domestic bond market. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and not chase the rise. If the market continues to rise tomorrow, take profit on previous long positions [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Wednesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, and spot bond yields declined. The open market conducted 418.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan. There was also a 150 billion yuan treasury cash fixed deposit. The funding situation remained tight, and DR001 rose to 1.49% [2] 3.2. Intraday News - The weighted winning bid rate of the 20-year treasury bond issued by the Ministry of Finance was 2.1616%, with an overall multiple of 5.71 and a marginal multiple of 2.16. Former central bank official Sheng Songcheng said that in the current economic situation, reserve requirement ratio cuts are better than interest rate cuts in China, but there is still room for interest rate cuts [3] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A-share index hit a new high today, but the bond market was less affected. The issuance of 20-year new bonds in the primary market was better than expected, and the winning bid rate was lower than the secondary market, driving the bond futures up in the afternoon. The market has low expectations for interest rate cuts. If the Fed cuts interest rates by more than 25bp tonight, it may drive the domestic bond market. The market sentiment is okay. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and not chase the rise. If the market continues to rise tomorrow, take profit on previous long positions [4] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-16 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.45 | 102.41 | 0.04 | | TF2512 | 105.87 | 105.78 | 0.09 | | T2512 | 108.135 | 108.01 | 0.125 | | TL2512 | 115.82 | 115.52 | 0.3 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0395 | -0.0241 | -0.0154 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0011 | 0.0072 | -0.0083 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2948 | 0.3299 | -0.0351 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5555 | 0.3712 | 0.1843 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 79034 | 77964 | 1070 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 147322 | 144812 | 2510 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 246189 | 240621 | 5568 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 166472 | 168706 | -2234 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 38558 | 43740 | -5182 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 70704 | 89826 | -19122 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 101611 | 138741 | -37130 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 132135 | 177470 | -45335 | [5]
国债期货日报-20250917
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-17 10:23