铜日报：利率决议公布在即，铜价降息交易或将放大波动-20250917

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors like smelting maintenance and recycled copper raw material interference provide support, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. With the Fed interest rate decision to be announced, the volatility is expected to increase on Thursday, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [1][3] - In the next one or two weeks, copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range is likely between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - 主力合约与基差: On September 16, the SHFE copper main contract price was 80,990 yuan/ton, a 0.2% rebound from the previous day, while the LME copper price dropped 0.71% to $10,117/ton. In terms of premium and discount, the domestic premium for premium copper widened to 125 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed to - $59.26/ton [1] - 持仓与成交: The LME copper open interest continued to expand with a significant inventory build - up, increasing overseas short - selling pressure. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the warrants did not flow out in large quantities, so the domestic market support was relatively stronger than the overseas market [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - 供给端: The tight supply of recycled copper has eased, but the delayed delivery of low - price raw materials has hindered the production of recycled copper rod enterprises. Planned maintenance at North China smelters may exacerbate short - term regional supply tightness. Indonesia's plan to increase Freeport's state - owned equity may disrupt long - term copper mine supply expectations, but the short - term impact is limited [2] - 需求端: High copper prices have continuously suppressed downstream procurement. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory decreased by 3.63%. The discount of recycled copper rods to the futures price widened to 640 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of high - price goods was low, with orders remaining at the minimum requirement [2] - 库存端: The LME inventory increased continuously, making overseas hidden inventories visible, while the SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the structural contradiction still existed [2] 1.3 Market Summary - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors support the market, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. After the Fed interest rate decision is announced at the night - session close, the volatility on Thursday is expected to increase, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From September 10 to September 16, the prices of SHFE copper, spot premium copper, and wet - process copper increased, while the LME copper price decreased. The LME and COMEX inventories increased, and the SHFE inventory decreased [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rates and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrants, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][8][11] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - After comprehensively analyzing the copper futures market data and information, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range may be between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [30][32]