Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-17 10:32Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The bond market has been in a continuous bottom - oscillating state under the influence of policy signals such as anti - involution and bond fund redemption fee reform. The market is sensitive to negative news, with weak overall repair momentum. Short - term pricing deviates from fundamentals, and sentiment becomes the main driving factor. However, in the context of a weak economic recovery, the possibility of a trend - like decline in the bond market is low, and yields are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to observe the adjustment rhythm of bond futures in the short term, and participate in band operations after the market stabilizes. Also, pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.155, up 0.13%, with a volume decrease of 37,130; TF主力收盘价105.890, up 0.1%, with a volume decrease of 19,122; TS主力收盘价102.456, up 0.04%, with a volume decrease of 5,182; TL主力收盘价115.880, up 0.31%, with a volume decrease of 45,335 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603价差0.34, down 0.00; T12 - TL12价差 - 7.72, down 0.24; T2512 - 2603价差0.30, down 0.02; TF12 - T12价差 - 2.27, down 0.06; TF2512 - 2603价差0.13, up 0.02; TS12 - T12价差 - 5.70, down 0.11; TS2512 - 2603价差0.08, up 0.02; TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.43, down 0.05 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量222,606, up 6,322; T前20名多头205,866, up 4,344; T前20名空头211,048, up 6,985; T前20名净空仓5,182, up 2,641; TF主力持仓量129,236, up 2,852; TF前20名多头120,780, up 959; TF前20名空头129,172, up 2,512; TF前20名净空仓8,392, up 1,553; TS主力持仓量72,319, up 668; TS前20名多头59,637, up 283; TS前20名空头63,600, up 703; TS前20名净空仓3,963, up 420; TL主力持仓量144,877, down 2,494; TL前20名多头127,595, up 418; TL前20名空头140,517, down 143; TL前20名净空仓12,922, down 561 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Net Price) - 220017.IB(6y) 106.4281, up 0.2640; 220019.IB(6y) 99.0955, up 0.2651; 230006.IB(4y) 105.3971, up 0.0709; 240020.IB(4y) 100.8844, up 0.2400; 250012.IB(1.7y) 99.9982, up 0.0274; 220016.IB(2y) 101.9859, up 0.0092; 210005.IB(17y) 130.988, up 0.4593; 210014.IB(18y) 127.3256, up 0.3444 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3975%, unchanged; 3y yield 1.4175%, down 0.50bp; 5y yield 1.5825%, down 2.75bp; 7y yield 1.7000%, down 3.00bp; 10y yield 1.7800%, down 2.00bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜1.5163%, up 5.63bp; Shibor隔夜1.4830%, up 4.60bp; 银质押7天1.5481%, up 4.81bp; Shibor7天1.5190%, up 4.40bp; 银质押14天1.6300%, up 11.00bp; Shibor14天1.6070%, up 10.10bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%, unchanged; 5y LPR 3.5%, unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模418.5 billion yuan, 利率1.4% for 7 - day, 到期规模304 billion yuan, additional 114.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.9 Industry News - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. Among them, the stamp duty was 284.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%, and the securities trading stamp duty was 118.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 81.7%. - On September 17, relevant departments have introduced over 30 policies around establishing a service consumption "1 + N" policy system, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce a series of characteristic documents. - On September 17, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will focus on three aspects to promote the quality improvement and capacity expansion of service supply [2]. 3.10 Key Events to Watch - At 2:00 on September 18, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and economic forecast summary; at 17:00 on September 18, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes [3].