月酝知风之地产行业月报：一线优化限购政策，关注板块轮动机会-20250917

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimization of purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to boost market expectations and restore regional market transactions in the short term. The report sees potential for sector rotation and catch-up opportunities, despite some investors' concerns about increased supply of "good houses" affecting de-stocking rates and second-hand housing prices [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the supply of "good houses" remains relatively scarce due to recent reductions in land acquisition and new construction by real estate companies. It suggests that the adjustment in second-hand housing prices is more a reaction to the de-stocking of new homes rather than a direct impact on the prices of "good houses" [2] - The report maintains a mid-term perspective, recommending high-quality companies that benefit from industry development trends. It highlights specific companies for short-term investment based on recent stock price performance and mid-term earnings [2] Policy Summary - Recent policies from the central government aim to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, with a focus on improving living conditions and releasing demand for better housing [3][5] - Specific policy changes include the relaxation of purchase restrictions for eligible families in Beijing and Shanghai, which is expected to improve market sentiment and transaction volumes [5] Financial Summary - In August 2025, the M2 money supply growth rate was 8.8%, while the social financing stock growth rate was also 8.8%. The new personal housing loan interest rate was reported at 3.1% [11][16] - The report notes a decrease in the issuance of domestic credit bonds by real estate companies, indicating a potential for further reductions in housing loan interest rates [12][16] Market Performance - In August 2025, the real estate sector saw a 6.47% increase, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 10.33%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector is 66.62, placing it in the 99.92 percentile of the past five years [42][48] - The report identifies specific real estate companies that are recommended for investment based on their performance and market conditions, including Poly Development, China Overseas Development, and others [49]